A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
